Saturday, December 25, 2021

Dresden Files Reread - Fool Moon Chapter 25

Photo by Vita Leonis on Unsplash
 Apparently "on top of him" was right where Harry wanted Harris to be. He gets and uncomfortably close look at the hexenwulf's face, including his very unwolflike blue eyes (I looked it up, and this is accurate - healthy adult wolves do not have blue or brown eyes). While he's getting menaced by all those sharpely teeth, Harry reaches under Harris's fur and unclips the wolf belt, causing him to revert to human form. He then kicks Harris in the balls and bangs his head on the ground until he loses consciousness. Brutal, but not excessively so - I'm reminded of the discussion in Cold Days about the different kinds of beatings that there are. This one is meant to make Harris stop being a fucking problem, and it serves the purpose admirably. 

Tera and the Alphas want to kill Harris, even though he's no longer a threat, which is interesting for reasons we'll get to in a minute, Harry is opposed to this on general principles (that would make us the same as them, et cetera) and carries the point through a combination of sheer presence and reminding Tera that they're got wounded, and making sure they don't die is a better use of everyone's time. When Tera backs down, Harry asks if anyone else has a problem with it, which is basically just a dominance display, establishing that the authority he just asserted over Tera extends to the rest of the pack. So, full marks for subtle reinforcement of theme, or at least as subtle as it gets in this series. 

Tera has the uninjured Alphas return to human form, and sends Georgia to talk to their driver while Billy and one of the others (likely Kirby, although he isn't named or described), drag one of the hurt ones out of the alley on Harris's jacket, and Tera just picks up and carries the other, which Harry finds impressive since she (probably she, since the named Alphas otherwise unaccounted for are Andy and Marcy) appears to weigh about 150 lbs, although he may be overestimating because wolves are floof. I also want to stop real quick and appreciate that Harry does exactly zero ogling when Georgia transforms from a big wolf into a naked co-ed. Like, I think we spend more time on what Billy's naked body looks like in Summer Knight. This is especially impressive given that Georgia is pretty close to the center of Dresden's normal attraction spectrum. 

Harry wakes Harris up to question him. Harris (unnecessarily) confirms that he, Denton, and the others are hexenwulfen, but he doesn't know with whom the bargain was made - Denton handled all of that before approaching the rest of the team, presenting it as a way to take down the criminals the law doesn't seem to be able to touch, including and especially Marcone. The plan was to set up the Streetwolves to take the fall for Marcone's murder. It doesn't take a lot to make a wolf themed street gang look like more plausible suspects than a bunch of FBI agents, and it would get a bunch of dangerous criminals of the streets at the same time, never mind that they would have been innocent of this particular murder. 

Photo by Colin Davis on Unsplash
Harris describes in detail the addictive nature of the belts, comparing them favorably to cocaine, talking about how great they feel and how uncomfortable it was to not use them, how Benn and Wilson were losing their humanity. After a month off to deflect suspicion, they destroyed MacFinn's circle, because for some reason Denton thought they needed a second fall guy. I think the idea here was probably for MacFinn to go down for it in front of the supernatural community, since the White Council might very well notice that something magical was afoot. 

Harry criticizes this whole scheme as deeply messed up. Harris argues that since they have the power, they have a responsibility to use it, an uncomfortable distorted echo of Harry's thoughts at the end of the previous chapter. Harris confirms that Denton wanted the Streetwolves to kill Harry, and Harry tells Harris to deliver a message to Denton: that he'll be at Marcone's house at moonrise. He also takes a stab at explaining the difference between his own sense of having a responsibility to use his power, and the things Harris justifies with the same sentiment, saying that the hexenwulfen are letting the power use them, rather than the other way around, and that they've become animals. 

When Harris leaves, Tera tells Harry that the hexenwulfen aren't animals, becasue animals kill for food or to defend themselves, not for fun. Leaving aside the fact that apparently Tera has never met a cat, this is interesting given her earlier claim that it was the pack's right and obligation to kill Harris in retribution for his hurting two of the Alphas. I'm genuinely curious where killing as a matter of principle fits into her schema here. I'm pretty sure most animals don't do that either. 

See, I told you I'd do a Dresden Files post. Next post is gonna be a likes and reservations (and things I was fine with) for the whole first season of Wheel of Time. Also if you're caught up on the show, you should check out my fanfic, which diverges in the middle of Episode 5, if you know what I mean. Until next time, be gay, do crimes, and read All The Things. 

Thursday, December 16, 2021

Insufficient Data - NaNo Follow Up

Fig. 1.1 Words Per Minute of each successive trial. 
This year's NaNo goal was to write 30 handwritten pages of fiction, in the form of 90 second to 10 minute writing sprints, to get a good sense of how these sprints, reminiscent of the writing I used to do while waiting for things to print or upload at my last full time job, really worked for my writing process. The results so far are promising, but ultimately inconclusive, because I only managed to do 26 sprints, comprising some six and a half handwritten pages. As a fraction of the goal, this is the worst NaNo on record, but I learned something, and isn't that what matters? 

Most obviously, as you can see clearly from the first graph there, I got faster as I went on. Writing on a tight-but-unknown time limit is a skill like any other, and with this graph you can literally see me getting better at it over time. This is important. (Yes I know the x-axis isn't labeled. It ought to say "Sprints" or something). I am weirdly into imposing a kind of soft digital Taylorism on myself, and knowing that I can get faster even with not actually that much practice is important. The average words per minute for all 26 trials was 13.87, so aiming to get higher than that every time is reasonable, at least for a while, and when I reach the point where it stops being possible to reliably beat my average if I work at it, that will also be good information to have. 

The biggest problem I discovered in the course of this experiment is that there's no obvious time to spend an unknown amount of time between 90 seconds and 10 minutes writing by hand as quickly as possible. It doesn't fit neatly into your day. There are very few times when you go "Ah, yes, this would be an excellent time to do this". Within such time constraints, being spoken more than very briefly is what the people my partner watches on YouTube would call a "run killer", so I need to either announce that I'm doing it, or find a time when I'm unlikely to be interrupted. The practical upshot of this is that if I want semi-randomized sprints to be a viable writing practice, I need to identify trigger events, circumstances that mean it makes sense to stop (or not start) doing something else and do a sprint before I carry on with my day. 

Before we move onto a slightly more detailed statistical analysis and a couple more graphs, we need to talk about the parameters of this data set, just like if we were doing real science. 

26 sprints (n = 26). Mean length of 5 minutes, 17.92 seconds. Mean word count of 71.92 words. Mean words per minute of 13.87 WPM, with a standard deviation of 3.15. Sprints were sorted into "buckets" based on their length. Bucket 1 is 90 seconds to 2 minutes, Bucket 2 is 2 to 3 minutes, Bucket 3 is 3 to 4 minutes, and so on. To illustrate the severe limitations of this data, here is an accounting of how many sprints are in each bucket. 

Bucket 1: 2
Bucket 2: 5
Bucket 3: 4
Bucket 4: 2
Bucket 5: 5
Bucket 6: 0
Bucket 7: 3
Bucket 8: 4
Bucket 9: 1

Yeah. We had no sprints in the 6-7 minute range. It stands to reason that there might not be as many in Bucket 1, since it's half the size of the others, but Bucket 4 also only had 2, and Bucket 9 only had one. This is not a good data set. There's not enough here, and there are some big holes. I've had a hard time determining how many sprints I'd need for really valid data, but it's at least a thousand. Going ahead and assessing it is largely an intellectual exercise, but we're gonna do it anyway, because I said I would post about it and because maybe we'll learn something about statistical analysis together. 

Fig. 1.2 Unadjusted Averages For Each Bucket in WPM

Behold Figure 1.2, I guess, the bar graph of the unadjusted averages for each Bucket. One of the objectively of this experiment was to figure out the best sprint length, or at least start forming a notion of it, possibly to narrow down even further in subsequent experiments until I find the Ideal Number of Seconds for a timed writing sprint. Ambitious, I realize, but. As you can see here, the 3-4 and 4-5 minute ranges are the only ones with averages over 15, and the 2-3 and 8-9 minute ranges are the only ones below the overall average of 13.87, although 9-10 is close to the line and only has one data point, so we don't know if there's drop-off after 8 minutes or if the 8-9 minute range is Especially Bad for some reason. Our four whole data points for that time range are 14.64 WPM, 12.17, 12.31, and 9.04. That middle pair suggest that Bucket 8's being below average is...legitimate, even though that 9.04 is probably the result of someone interrupting me. We're gonna talk about the 2-3 range in a minute, but first we're gonna look at the other bar graph. 

Fig. 1.3 Averages Without Outliers

The reason Bucket 2 just jumped up by more than a full word per minute is because Bucket 2 contains the only actual outlier in our data set, a 2 minute 56 second sprint in which I wrote only 36 words, coming out to 6.43 words per minute. It's still the only bucket other than 8 that comes out below the average though. Currently. I tentatively predict that with additional data, Bucket 1 will start looking more like Bucket 2, but it's hard to know for sure. Bucket 5 is pretty middle of the road here - 4 Buckets have higher averages, 3 have lower, and Bucket 6 doesn't exist. So it's exactly middle of the road. But it's also massively variable, containing both our highest WPM for a single sprint (19.44 WPM) and our lowest that isn't an outlier (8.55 WPM). These are, by the way, 5 minutes 55 seconds and 5 minutes 58 seconds respectively, so it isn't a question of a substantive difference in length, nor is it a question of being very far apart - these are sprints 13 and 26 respectively. Now, if you look back up at that Figure 1.1, you can see that something happened after #13 - there are no other major dips after that, and #14 is, at 18.56 WPM, the second highest words per minute in this experiment. I don't remember any particular thing happening around then - I didn't date these, and I probably should have, so I can't readily account for it, but it's there in the graph.

At this point there's very little to do other than continue doing as many sprints as I can and try to gather better data. If you're interested in following the progress of this experiment, you can view the spreadsheet here.  You want the tab that just says "1.5-10". And if you want another update when we have something more to talk about, let me know in the comments. 

Next post will be Dresden Files, I promise. Until then, be Gay, do Crimes, and read All The Things!


Monday, December 6, 2021

I Literally Just Want to Talk About Stepin

Photo by Daniel Curran on Unsplash
CONTENT NOTE: DISCUSSION OF SUICIDE AND SUICIDAL IDEATION. Also book spoilers, and spoilers for the show through S1:E5. 

I guess I should preface this by saying that I am not okay, and I'm not entirely sure why. You guys, I haven't been this torn up by the death of a fictional character since the first time I watched Fullmetal Alchemist. It's been more than 72 hours and I'm still physically uncomfortable. I'm having nightmares. I feel like I've lost a Warder. It's bad. And I can fully account for why this is hitting me so hard. This has not been the best way to go through finals week. So instead of any kind of useful thoughts or analysis about the show, which I'm sure I'll want to go back and talk about at some point when I'm feeling less inexplicably devastated, we're gonna talk about all the ways that Stepin absolutely didn't have to die. 

First of all let me start by saying for fans of the show who have not read the books that Stepin's reaction to Kerene's death is 100% normal. Warders who outlive their Aes Sedai usually do so by seconds or minutes before managing to die in the process of avenging her death. You'll notice that Stepin tried his best to do exactly that back in Episode 4. Those who are unable to avenge their Aes Sedai, or who manage to survive doing so, are invariably suicidal, usually for years. So we're gonna start with that. Everyone, with the possible exception of Nyneave, as soon as they knew that Kerene was dead and Stepin had survived the battle, knew that he was going to try to kill himself. They knew, and aside from Lan and Nyneave, they apparently didn't care. When Lan brings it up, Moiraine says "Oh, don't worry, he'll make it long enough to return Kerene's ring." because the way most Aes Sedai see it, Stepin's death was a foregone conclusion as soon as Logain killed Kerene. 

That's all by way of saying that literally everyone involved was aware of the risks, and the most basic precaution, having someone keep an eye on Stepin at all times until either he accepted Alanna's offer or something else changed, wasn't observed. Absolutely no one was confused about the fact that he needed to be on suicide watch, and they just... didn't do it. Even Lan didn't until the very end. I'm inclined to give Nynaeve some leeway here, because she isn't as familiar with the mechanics of the Warder bond as literally everyone else involved, and because when she finally realized that something was more wrong than the obvious grief at the loss of someone his relationship with whom he had described as closer than husband and wife or parent and child, she makes like she's gonna follow him and then Liandrin talks to her and she does something else instead. Given that Liandrin has a "trick" of lowkey compulsion, where she can't exactly make people do what she says but she can make them want to do what she says, it's entirely possible that Nyneave's side trip into the garden wasn't entirely voluntary, and of course once Loial found her and told her Rand and Mat were in the city, that was going to take priority, at least in the short term. 

Photo by Paul Einerhand on Unsplash
Also in case a great deal of well-documented common knowledge about how the Warder bond works wouldn't have told again, almost literally everyone there, that Stepin needed supervision and whatever is available in terms of treatment, he tried to communicate this at least twice. Before returning Kerene's ring, when he tells Maksim and Ihvon that it's good that they'll always have each other, and then when he goes to talk to Nynaeve to ask for more goatstongue and he's got a bottle of Unspecified Alcohol with him, which he's openly holding in his hand until she turns around to look, at which point he ostentatiously wiggles it a few times before hiding it behind his back. He can't tell her, but he wants her to know. With that, and what he actually says, he is doing everything in his power to convey to the closest thing he has to a healthcare provider that he is absolutely not going to pull out of this on his own, that left to his own devices he is only going to keep getting worse. (As an aside, I don't think the getting the goatstongue was... entirely premeditated. He had lots of opportunities to kill himself before Lan decided to stay with him. He may have been thinking of it as a contingency in case, y'know, he reached the point of decision and then someone decided to get hovery (which is basically what happened), but I think he did also actually want something to help him sleep. I don't think he decided for sure until almost right before he did it, even though he knew for a long while before that that's the direction things were heading). 

On the subject of which, he was going to Nynaeve, who is a guest in the White Tower, for medical care. Where the hell was the Yellow Ajah? Where were any Greens other than Alanna, who was sort of validly trying to give him space after saying "Hey sorry that the most important person in your life died and in the process basically ripped out your sense of having any reason to exist, want to join my polycule?". (To be clear Alanna wanting to give him space does not excuse Maksim and Ihvon just...vanishing after he melts down Kerene's ring.). Like, even without them, the list of people who knew what was up and didn't have anything better to do was definitely long enough to supervise one guy who wasn't trying that hard, but he should have had access to support from the actual organization with which he was affiliated, and that was...nowhere in evidence. In the books, there are procedures for this situation, although to be fair in the books, the first part of that procedure is that normal ideas of consent where the Warder bond is concerned don't really apply to a Warder who's just lost his Aes Sedai. In the books he would have been re-bonded before he had a chance to sit down. That... it doesn't always work either. Nothing always works. With everything you can do, you lose most of them, because keeping someone alive who doesn't want to be for long enough that they can start to heal is not an easy thing to do, and this isn't like regular suicidality where getting them through this particular crisis likely means you have a minute, means you have more space to try and work on things. It doesn't stop. But you can, you know, respect someone's consent and still not make their first and apparently only responsibility upon returning to the White Tower be to go put something in the fancy ter'angreal right next to a convenient, unfenced ledge very high up in a very tall building,  leaving their friends far enough behind in the process that they wouldn't be able to get to them in time. 

Photo by Paul Einerhand on Unsplash
I don't know, it was weird as hell that we saw literally no other Aes Sedai, and I don't think the primary reason for that was for the sake of neglecting Stepin in order to make sure that, on a narrative level, he had room to do what he was gonna do, but it was even weirder seeing Moiraine and Alanna just kind of hang out in her room like it wasn't even a thing. I don't know where Lan was in the unspecified amount of time between Stepin returning Kerene's ring, which must have happened pretty much immediately, and the last couple of scenes. And to be clear, I know that keeping two people with him at all times wouldn't necessarily have been enough, probably wouldn't have been enough, and that his stated reasons for not becoming one of Alanna's warders had nothing to do with her polycule, his uncertainty about joining it, or Ihvon's obvious discomfort with the idea. So even if there was another Green around, he probably wouldn't have let her do it either, although I do wonder what would have happened if Nyneave had learned the weave. Also why was there still a rack of daggers in his room? They literally couldn't put together the necessary fucks to give to take the literal weapons out of his actual room where he sleeps? I don't know if any of it would have been enough. It usually isn't. But that doesn't make it any less upsetting that for the most part they didn't even try. 

NaNo stats have been compiled and scienced, so the next post, sometime in the coming week, will have graphs! Might or might not do a real Episode 5 post. Will do another Dresden Files post sometime in the soonish I promise. Until next time, be gay, do crimes, and read All The Things.